GCSE results 2015

GCSE results

Following the release of the latest GCSE results, ALL Trustee Steven Fawkes said:

“ALL congratulates candidates and their teachers on their achievements in languages in this year’s GCSE examinations. We hope that many of the successful students will carry on with their language learning in their ongoing study, especially as future working and studying opportunities in many domains often call for language skills.

The Association is concerned that school leaders should respond proactively to the ongoing gradual decline in numbers taking GCSE language qualifications, and hopes that requirements recently outlined will have a positive impact.”

The headlines

Although there is a smaller cohort of 16 yr olds in 2015 compared to 2014 (down by 1.5%), the number of overall GCSE entries has risen (up by 1.2%, and by 1.7% for 16 yr olds specifically).

Following last year’s major changes in England (I.e. all GCSEs are now being taken in a linear fashion, plus the ‘first result counts’ change to accountability measures) the number of 15 yr olds taking GCSEs has continued to drop (by 13.4%), although the number of 17yr olds taking GCSEs continues to rise (by 18.2%, many being retakes of English and Maths).

For languages specifically, the number of entries overall is down again from 2014: French by 6%, German by 10% and Spanish by 2%. Compared to 2013 (which saw a strong increase in entries for languages GCSEs, due in large part to the introduction of the Government’s EBacc measure in 2010), only Spanish has managed to hold on to most of this gain (90,782 entries in 2015, compared to 91,315 in 2013).

Concerns in 2013 that gains due to the EBacc measure would be weakened by subsequent new accountability measures seem to have been borne out.

GCSE entries	2015	2015- 2014	2014	2014- 2013	2013	2013- 2012	2012	2012- 2011	2011	2011- 2010	2010	2015- 2010
French	157699	-6%	168042	-5%	177288	+16%	153436	-1%	154221	-13%	177860	-11%
Spanish	90782	-2%	93028	+2%	91315	+26%	72606	+10%	66021	-3%	67778	+34%
German	54037	-10%	59891	-5%	62932	+9%	57547	-5%	60887	-13%	70174	-23%
Other	33043	+4%	31865	+2%	31368	+5%	29843	+14%
Total	335561	-5%	352826	-3%	362903	+16%	313432	+2%	307386	-3%	315812	-6%

GCSE entries	2015 entries	2015 – 2014	2014 entries	2014 – 2013	2013 entries	2013 – 2012	2012 entries	2012 – 2011	2011 entries
Arabic	3780	+3.8%	3641	+0.9%	3607	+11.5%	3236	+22.6%	2639
Bengali	776	-19.4%	963	-13.3%	1111	+1.7%	1092	+9.6%	996
Chinese	3710	+18.5%	3132	+3.0%	3042	+19.7%	2541	+20.8%	2104
Dutch	462	+13.8%	406	-3.6%	421	-3.0%	434	+0.7%	431
Gujurati	563	-9.9%	625	+15.3%	542	-7.5%	586	+3.7%	565
Italian	4824	-2.1%	4929	-4.0%	5136	+2.2%	5023	+15.7%	4343
Japanese	998	-2.1%	1019	-5.6%	1080	-5.2%	1139	+1.8%	1119
Modern Greek	528	+2.3%	516	+1.2%	510	+32.1%	386	-7.7%	418
Modern Hebrew	558	+11.6%	500	+12.9%	443	-3.3%	458	+2.9%	445
Panjabi	836	-5.6%	886	-6.8%	951	-1.7%	967	+9.3%	885
Persian	445	-16.8%	535	+23.0%	435	-6.3%	464	+17.8%	394
Polish	5018	+11.6%	4498	+14.4%	3933	-4.7%	4128	+22.5%	3369
Portuguese	2392	+8.9%	2197	+12.4%	1955	+13.6%	1721	+23.2%	1397
Russian	2270	-5.4%	2400	+5.5%	2274	+14.7%	1982	+4.4%	1899
Turkish	1630	-0.7%	1642	+16.5%	1409	+2.2%	1379	+6.7%	1293
Urdu	4253	+7.0%	3976	-12.0%	4519	+4.9%	4307	+8.8%	3960
Total	33043	+3.7%	31865	+1.6%	31368	+5.1%	29843	+13.7%	26257

In terms of results, 70.8% of entrants received grade A*-C in French, 74.6% in German and 73.2% in Spanish.

There has been a small increase in the percentage of students receiving an A* in languages this year (French up 0.4%, German up 0.1% and Spanish up 1.3%), but because of the drop in overall numbers taking French and German, the number of A* students has fallen from 2014 to 2015 (e.g. French 14,617 to 14,294, German 4,659 to 4,263).

More detail on how prior attainment is calculated is needed (and has been requested) from JCQ. Certainly the recent JCQ and Ofqual reports regarding grading at A Level have led to positive changes on this issue, but we need action on severe grading at GCSE to address this worrying decline.

*A in languages**	2015	2014	2013	2012	2011	2010	2010-2015 Average
	(Total UK)	(Total UK)	(Total UK)	(Total UK)	(Total UK)	(Total UK)	(Total UK)
French	10.0%	9.6%	9.8%	10.7%	10.2%	10.9%	10.2%
German	8.5%	8.4%	9.2%	9.6%	9.1%	9.5%	9.1%
Spanish	13.8%	12.5%	13.1%	14.7%	15.0%	16.3%	14.5%
Other modern languages	36.8%	35.8%	34.5%	34.5%	33.4%	35.6%	35.2%

Further detail

From David Blow, Headteacher of The Ashcombe School in Surrey, member of ASCL Data Group and technical adviser to ALL London:

“The graphs and tables below show the dramatic decline in numbers sitting French and German over the last 10 years, from a combined total of around 420,000 down to around 200,000, and the one-off jump in Spanish from 60,000 to 90,000 with the introduction of the EBacc. In particular the decline has been in those gaining lower grades (D-G), leading to increased percentages getting A*-C but fewer numbers. Of these ~220,000 students who are now not taking a modern language, there are probably around 80,000 students capable of getting an A*-C.

Severe grading is still very present with candidates gaining on average at least half a grade lower in their modern language subjects in comparison with other EBacc subjects. Thus with the advent of Progress 8, which takes effect for “opt-in” schools for this year’s results and for all schools for the 2016 results, there is now a strong incentive not to do a language, as you need 3 EBacc slots to be filled, which usually will be 2 sciences and history or geography – giving you better grades than doing a modern language as one of the EBacc3. And even more of a disincentive, there is a risk that the lower modern language grade will get counted in the Other 3 bucket rather than a higher graded GCSE or non-GCSE.”